Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis: Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method (Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare)


Tests whether or not the evaluation of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more practical method

Reveals {that a} key aspect of present coaching offered to the UK and US intelligence communities (and seemingly all 5-EYES and a number of European businesses) doesn’t have a confirmed capacity to mitigate cognitive biasesDemonstrates that judging the credibility of info from human sources implies that intelligence evaluation faces higher complexity and cognitive pressure than non-intelligence analysisExplains the underlying causes cognitive biases, primarily based on meta-analyses of present researchShows that figuring out the excellent situations for intelligence evaluation is a more practical manner of lowering the threat of cognitive bias than the use of ACH

Recent high-profile intelligence failures – from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq conflict – show that cognitive bias in intelligence evaluation can have catastrophic penalties. This e book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence businesses on the use of a way for intelligence evaluation developed by the CIA in the Nineteen Nineties, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The creator places ACH to the take a look at in an experimental setting in opposition to two key cognitive biases with distinctive empirical analysis facilitated by UK’s Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical foundation of the ACH technique is considerably flawed. Combining the perception of a practitioner with over 11 years of expertise in intelligence with each philosophical idea and experimental analysis, the creator proposes another method to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum setting for evaluation, difficult present main theories.

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Edinburgh University Press; 1st version (September 15, 2020)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 304 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1474466346
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1474466349
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1.3 kilos
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.5 x 1 x 9.25 inches


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